Making Sense of Disinformation on Social Media in India - Part I
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The rapid spread of disinformation can distort and hinder social progress and cohesion. In this case study, we uncover six stories that depict the phenomenon of disinformation in India and identify the signals that could help those in power prevent the digital civil war from creating real-world casualties. Read on for Part I.
The spread of disinformation on social media is complex. It falls under the broad category of information disorder: a spectrum of disinformation, misinformation, falsehoods and abuse that range from satire and parody, click-bait headlines, and the misleading use of captions to visuals or statistics. Disinformation also extends to when genuine content is shared out of context or imposter content which is when a journalist’s name or a newsroom logo is used by people with no connections to them. Such online content is often manipulated and fabricated to form particular narratives.
A single term cannot adequately describe these multifarious intents and manifestations. Nonetheless, for the purpose of this analysis, we will simplify the terminology and continue to use “disinformation” as an umbrella term for information disorder and provide additional context as needed.
Social media and messaging apps are at the heart of India’s information problem
With an estimated quarter of a billion Indians joining the online community since the last general election in May 2019, companies like Facebook, Google and Twitter have become central parts of the Indian media environment, including the disinformation problems that it faces. Over the past decade, the digital population has been growing rapidly with over 680 million active internet users recorded and an active social media penetration of over 30%.
A study by the EU DisinfoLab in 2019 found that at least "265 fake local news websites, in more than 65 countries are managed by Indian influence networks with the aim of influencing international institutions along with elected representatives and swaying the public perception of Pakistan.”In the period between May 2017 to April 2020, there have been more than 20 reported cases of mob-related violence and killings following the spread of rumors or fake news on Indian social media networks. Fake news and disinformation have become a major menace in India. So much so that this ‘infodemic’ has become the new normal. The problem of disinformation in India is so severe that it has been likened by some commentators to a public health crisis due to the perceived dangers it can have on society
Figure 1 - Digital population in India, February 2021
Applying a high tech and high touch approach to understand the disinformation landscape
In this data-driven analysis, we attempt to explore the contours of disinformation on Twitter over a two-month period in India. We identify the themes and narratives that are most associated with disinformation and how they evolve over time.
Whilst a few surveys have been conducted by news and research outlets that try to shed light on the scale and scope of this crisis, they suffer from many of the endemic biases in selection, and sampling including confirmation bias, empathy gap and social desirability bias.
Applying our unique high tech and high touch approach, our team at Ripple Research has assembled a dataset of almost a million online conversations and mentions in India around disinformation over a two-month period (May - Jun 2021) to get a bottom-up, worm’s eye view of this topic. The dataset includes completely unprompted and unstructured data based on people’s public conversations, perceptions and preferences.
Once the disinformation dataset has been assembled, our Acoustics product applies advanced natural language processing (NLP) algorithms to extract the most prominent topics that are most associated with disinformation. These topics are then grouped into themes and narratives. Our team of experienced analysts then provide context to understand the contours of each theme.
From issues relating to mental health, fear of change, religious conflict and threat of economic turmoil, Ripple Research has gone beyond traditional services that count how many fake accounts are disseminating disinformation on Twitter.
Instead, we identify how disinformation is obscuring the truth and discuss how these learnings can enable society to make progress.
For policymakers and civil society, there is infinite value in the findings uncovered in this case study. Given that the distortion of information can make it impossible to focus on the real and most pressing underlying issues, we attempt to unpack how disinformation can distort and prolong political and social resolutions.
Deep issue insights and audience perception analysis
The volume of conversations around disinformation were relatively stable over our two-month study period with a major peak on June 15th.
Figure 2 - Volume of conversations around disinformation
Figure 3 - Dominant themes identified
The six thematic areas most associated with disinformation in May and June.
Figure 4 - Six dominant themes associated with disinformation
Out of the 800,000+ conversations we have assembled in our dataset, most of the popular disinformation discourse is around 6 major topics.
i. Bapuji
ii. Altnews
iii. Ram Mandir Scam
iv. Sushant Singh Rajput
v. Delhi Riots
vi. Farmers Protest
Each of these topics embed multiple narratives and intentions as discussed below.
Given the diversity and complexity of societal constructs in India, social media discourse often has a strong undercurrent of either politics, religion or both. With this context in mind, the above six thematic areas and their embedded narratives are further classified across four dimensions or descriptors:
i. Circumstantial: Circumstantial disinformation is generally based on a concrete event or an incident that has occurred and refers to a particular place, incident, organisation or person.
ii. Ideological: Notional disinformation on the other hand may or may not be based on an actual event but it is peddled by rousing emotions of people by specifically targeting their ideologies, beliefs, ethics and values.
iii. Targeting political incumbent (BJP)
iv. Targeting political opposition (Congress)
With this framework in place, each of the six topics are further analysed with some background context, a discussion of how the narratives play out and a social analysis determined by the signals picked out by Ripple Research.
Context:
· Asumal Sirumalani Harpalani, popularly known as Asaram Bapu, is a self-styled God-man in India. He is one of the most infamous, controversial and influential religious leaders in India. With millions of devotees and more than 400 ashrams around the world, Asaram Bapu has a large and fanatic social media following.
· Bapu has been featured in the news multiple times for his misdemeanours. Multiple legal proceedings have been initiated against him in connection with illegal encroachment, witness tampering and even sexual assault. In 2018, Asaram was found guilty for the rape of a minor and is currently serving life imprisonment.
Why is this topic trending now?
· Bapu has repeatedly expressed desire to be granted bail citing several physical ailments. During the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, Bapu contracted the virus and his health started deteriorating. Following this development, a plea for bail was again filed which was again denied.
· Bapu and his followers started a social media campaign demanding his release.
Several attempts were made by his social media supporters to conflate repercussions against Bapuji's transgressions as attacks against the religion he represents and its followers.
· Many non-Bapu supporters remain aghast when the campaign conflated the case with the case of television actor Pearl V Puri. In this instance, the actor was accused of rape of a minor but was granted bail within 15 days. This fuelled the campaign even more with conspicuous demands made to the government to save the Hindutva and to serve justice to Asaram Bapu.
There are nine sub-narratives that Acoustics has picked up within this broader theme. As can be seen below, each narrative has been classified based on the four descriptors mentioned earlier: Circumstantial, Ideological, Targeting Incumbent (BJP), Targeting Opposition (Congress).
As illustrated in exhibit 5, ideology plays a major role and Hindutva has been co-opted to garner support for Asaram Bapu.
Figure 5 - Narratives identified for the theme of Asaram Bapu
Key takeaways:
The case of Asaram Baru highlights how ideology and religion can be co-opted through the spread of misinformation. It underscores a significant social problem where ideology can be used as a powerful lever to galvanise support to endorse and defend a convicted rapist.
This story raises important questions about how to monitor and police social media channels if they are to perpetuate false narratives about those found guilty of sexual harassment and abuse in the hope of freeing them.
If social media was successfully harnessed by Asaram Baru’s supporters to guarantee his release from prison, this would set a dangerous precedent for future rape cases. It would erode feelings of public safety for women and victims of sexual abuse, who would also be likely to feel betrayed and exposed to further predatory behaviour. This example highlights how disinformation online can translate into real world problems with the possibility of inflicting direct mental trauma for many.
Context:
· Altnews, founded in 2017, is a not-for-profit fact checking website in India. They debunk misinformation, disinformation and mal-information encountered on a daily basis on social media as well as in mainstream media. It was founded by Pratik Sinha and Mohammed Zubair.
Why is this topic trending now?
· In a recent incident in Ghaziabad, Uttar Pradesh, an elderly man, Sufi Abdul Samad Saifi was physically assaulted by six men and had his beard chopped off.
· Altnews founder, Mohammed Zubair circulated a video alleging that this violent incident was motivated by religious reasons and that the Muslim victim was forced to chant Hindu slogans.
· However, the Uttar Pradesh Police ruled out any "communal angle" and said that the victim was attacked by the six men, as they were unhappy over some taberez (amulets) he had sold them.
· Following this development, an FIR was filed against Twitter India, Mohammed Zubair, Swara Bhaskar and other Congress party leaders for their wilful attempt of giving communal colour to the event and provoking unrest. Twitter was specifically battered by the Indian government for their incapability to flag a ‘morphed video’ and in taking down the tweets allegedly allowing the video to go viral.
There are nine sub-narratives that Acoustics has picked up within this broader theme. Each narrative has been classified based on the four descriptors mentioned earlier: Circumstantial, Ideological, Incumbent (BJP) related, Opposition (Congress) related.
As can be seen in the below exhibit 6, most of the sub-narratives, both supporting and hostile, are directed at Altnews and Zubair without an overt indication of any other influence. As mentioned above, Congress party members were also targeted in relation to this incident.
It is important to note that there was a significant portion of support for Altnews Founder, Zubair as well as many detractors. This is unlike the previous theme of Asaram Bapu, where all the data was dominated by his supporters.
Key takeaways:
Altnews founder Mohammed Zubair’s portrayal of the incident with Sufi Abdul Samad Saifi demonstrates that sharing unverified information and content when you have a large social media following can spark unneeded religious, political and social tensions.
By jumping to portray the incident of physical abuse of the elderly man as a religious hate crime, Mohammed Zubair made statements without tangible proof that had severe ramifications. Instead of waiting to verify claims, he shared viral content that went against accounts of the Ghaziabad Police. A valuable learning is that a figurehead of trusted and reputable news outlets should always act cautiously when sharing information. They arguably have a moral duty to do so. The news outlet founder has since deleted the video, which he discusses on his Twitter platform.
To continue reading Part II of ‘Making Sense of Disinformation on Social Media in India’ click here.
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